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ScienceDirectAvailableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comAvailableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comScienceDirectEnergyProcedia00(2017)000–000www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia1876-6102©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityoftheScientificCommitteeofThe15thInternationalSymposiumonDistrictHeatingandCooling.The15thInternationalSymposiumonDistrictHeatingandCoolingAssessingthefeasibilityofusingtheheatdemand-outdoortemperaturefunctionforalong-termdistrictheatdemandforecastI.Andrića,b,c*,A.Pinaa,P.Ferrãoa,J.Fournierb.,B.Lacarrièrec,O.LeCorrecaIN+CenterforInnovation,TechnologyandPolicyResearch-InstitutoSuperiorTécnico,Av.RoviscoPais1,1049-001Lisbon,PortugalbVeoliaRecherche&Innovation,291AvenueDreyfousDaniel,78520Limay,FrancecDépartementSystèmesÉnergétiquesetEnvironnement-IMTAtlantique,4rueAlfredKastler,44300Nantes,FranceAbstractDistrictheatingnetworksarecommonlyaddressedintheliteratureasoneofthemosteffectivesolutionsfordecreasingthegreenhousegasemissionsfromthebuildingsector.Thesesystemsrequirehighinvestmentswhicharereturnedthroughtheheatsales.Duetothechangedclimateconditionsandbuildingrenovationpolicies,heatdemandinthefuturecoulddecrease,prolongingtheinvestmentreturnperiod.Themainscopeofthispaperistoassessthefeasibilityofusingtheheatdemand–outdoortemperaturefunctionforheatdemandforecast.ThedistrictofAlvalade,locatedinLisbon(Portugal),wasusedasacasestudy.Thedistrictisconsistedof665buildingsthatvaryinbothconstructionperiodandtypology.Threeweatherscenarios(low,medium,high)andthreedistrictrenovationscenariosweredeveloped(shallow,intermediate,deep).Toestimatetheerror,obtainedheatdemandvalueswerecomparedwithresultsfromadynamicheatdemandmodel,previouslydevelopedandvalidatedbytheauthors.Theresultsshowedthatwhenonlyweatherchangeisconsidered,themarginoferrorcouldbeacceptableforsomeapplications(theerrorinannualdemandwaslowerthan20%forallweatherscenariosconsidered).However,afterintroducingrenovationscenarios,theerrorvalueincreasedupto59.5%(dependingontheweatherandrenovationscenarioscombinationconsidered).Thevalueofslopecoefficientincreasedonaveragewithintherangeof3.8%upto8%perdecade,thatcorrespondstothedecreaseinthenumberofheatinghoursof22-139hduringtheheatingseason(dependingonthecombinationofweatherandrenovationscenariosconsidered).Ontheotherhand,functioninterceptincreasedfor7.8-12.7%perdecade(dependingonthecoupledscenarios).Thevaluessuggestedcouldbeusedtomodifythefunctionparametersforthescenariosconsidered,andimprovetheaccuracyofheatdemandestimations.©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityoftheScientificCommitteeofThe15thInternationalSymposiumonDistrictHeatingandCooling.Keywords:Heatdemand;Forecast;ClimatechangeEnergyProcedia125(2017)318–3261876-6102©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.20610.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.2061876-6102©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).Availableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comScienceDirectEnergyProcedia00(2017)000–000www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia1876-6102©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).EuropeanGeosciencesUnionGeneralAssembly2017,EGUDivisionEnergy,Resources&Environment,EREEfficiencyandaccuracyofequivalentfracturemodelsforpredictingfracturedgeothermalreservoirs:theinfluenceoffracturenetworkpatternsTaoChena,ChristophClausera,*,GabrieleMarquartaaInstituteforAppliedGeophysicsandGeothermalEnergy,E.ONEnergyResearchCenter,RWTHAachenUniversity,Mathieustr.10,D-52056Aachen,GermanyAbstractWeevaluatetheaccuracyandefficiencyofequivalentfracturemodelswithaCartesiangridregardingthevariationoffracturenetworkpatterns.Weapplyboththestandardfinitevolumemethodandthemimeticfinitedifferencemethodfordiscretizingtheflowequationintheequivalentfracturemodels.Thestudyunderlinesthattheequivalentfracturemodelsyieldaccurateandefficientresultsforpredictingthetemperatureingeothermalreservoirs.Theequivalentfracturemodelsbasedonthemimeticfinitedifferencemethodyieldscomparableresultswiththosebasedonthestandardfinitevolumemethod.Whereastheiraccuracyisinfluencedbytheorientationsofsparselydistributedfractures.©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).Keywords:Equivalentfracturemodel;Discretefracturemodel;Fracturenetworkpattern;Accuracy;Efficiency*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+49-241-8049881;fax:+49-241-8049889.E-mailaddress:cclauser@eonerc.rwth-aachen.deAvailableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comScienceDirectEnergyProcedia00(2017)000–000www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia1876-6102©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).EuropeanGeosciencesUnionGeneralAssembly2017,EGUDivisionEnergy,Resources&Environment,EREEfficiencyandaccuracyofequivalentfracturemodelsforpredictingfracturedgeothermalreservoirs:theinfluenceoffracturenetworkpatternsTaoChena,ChristophClausera,*,GabrieleMarquartaaInstituteforAppliedGeophysicsandGeothermalEnergy,E.ONEnergyResearchCenter,RWTHAachenUniversity,Mathieustr.10,D-52056Aachen,GermanyAbstractWeevaluatetheaccuracyandefficiencyofequivalentfracturemodelswithaCartesiangridregardingthevariationoffracturenetworkpatterns.Weapplyboththestandardfinitevolumemethodandthemimeticfinitdiferencethodforiscretizingtheflowequationintheequivalentfracturemodels.Thestudyunderlinesthattheequivalentfracturemodelsyieldaccurateandefficientresultsforpredictingthetemperatureingeothermalreservoirs.Theequivalentfracturemodelsbasedonthemimeticfinitedifferencemethodyieldscomparableresultswiththosebasedonthestandardfinitevolumemethod.Whereastheiraccuracyisinfluencedbytheorientationsofsparselydistributedfractures.©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).Keywords:Equivalentfracturemodel;Discretefracturemodel;Fracturenetworkpattern;Accuracy;Efficiency*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+49-241-8049881;fax:+49-241-8049889.E-mailaddress:cclauser@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de2TaoChenetal./EnergyProcedia00(2017)000–0001.IntroductionNumericalmodelingisageneraltoolforpredictingtheenergyproductionatproductionwellsandassessingriskforageothermalreservoirproject,e.g.,[1,2].Fracturedrocksexistwidelyundergroundwhichactasthemainpathwaysforfluidflow[3],thisisespeciallythecaseforEngineeredGeothermalReservoirs.Accordingly,thenumericalmodelsforgeothermalreservoirsshouldreflectproperlytheeffectoffracturesforcoupledflowandheattransportproblems.Fracturesinanumericalmodelcanberepresentedexplicitly,implicitly,orasacombinationofboth.Forexplicitmodeling,thefracturesareusuallyrepresentedbyone-dimensionallinesintwo-dimensionalmodelsorbytwo-dimensionalsurfacesinthree-dimensionalmodels.Thegeometryofthefractureisdescribedbasedondatafromseismicexperiments,outcrops,welllogging,coresamples,etc.Weclassifysuchmodelsasdiscretefracturemodels[4-7].Forimplicitmodeling,thehydraulicpropertiesoffracturesareaveragesovergridblocks,i.e.,requireupscalingofpermeability,whosedimensionsareseveralordersofmagnitudebiggerthanthefractureaperture.Moreover,thegridblocksusuallyhaveauniformgeometry,e.g.,cubicblocks.Suchmodelsareequivalentfracturemodels,whichcanbefurtherclassifiedassingleporositymodelorequivalentporousmedium[8],dualporositymodel[9]andmultiple-porositymodel[10]accordingtothekindsofpropertiesdefinedwithinthegridblock.Additionally,arecentlydevelopedmodel,theembeddeddiscretefracturemodel,integratesthelongfracturesinthegridsystemasusedintheequivalentfracturemodel,andusesasourceorsinktermtoconnectflowbetweenfractureandmatrix[11-13].Thechoiceofthenumericalmodelsatthefieldscale,usuallyrangingfromseveralhundredmeterstoseveralkilometersinlength,dependsonitsaccuracyandcomputationalefficiency.Fracturesexistatmultiplescalesinrocks,e.g.,theirsizesrangefrommicronstohundredsofkilometers[14].Fracturenetworksareoftencomposedofseveralsetswithdifferentorientations[15].Suchcomplexitiesoffracturegeometrycanhardlybehandledinnumericalmodels.Itisnotpracticaltomodelfracturedgeothermalreservoirsatthefieldscalewithfullydetailedfracturerepresentationsaccordingtothecurrentcomputationalability.Inaddition,insufficientundergrounddataforcharacterizingfracturedrocksleadstoparameterorgeologicalstructureuncertaintyofthemodelse.g.,[16,17].Foranalyzinguncertaintyoffracturedgeothermalreservoirs,asetofmodelsbasedonprobabilitydistributionsneedstobegenerated[18].Suchprobabilitydistributionswouldberequiredforequivalentpermeabilityoffracturedrocks,discretefracturegeometries,andcontactpointsforformation.Thismakestheequivalentfracturemodelamoreefficienttoolforpredictinggeothermalreservoirs.Apartfromtherockparametersorthegeologicalstructuresmentionedabove,theuncertaintyofthepredictedperformanceofahydrodynamicflowproblemmayalsocomefromthenumericalmodels.Moinfaretal.[19]compareddual-permeabilitymodelswithdiscretefracturemodelsformultiple-phaseflowinoilrecovery.Theirresultssuggestthatdual-permeabilitymethodsaresuitableforsparsefracturesystems.However,theyareinadequatewhenthefracturedensityincreasesandthefracturepatterntendstobeirregular.Blessentetal.[20]appliedequivalentfracturemodels,includingsingleporosityanddual-porositymodels,anddiscretefracturemodelsforcalibratingandpredictingcontaminanttransportinfracturedrocks,inwhichthefractureswereparalleltothecoordinateaxesofthemodeldomain.Thesecomparisonsindicatewhenflowandtransportconditionsvaried,comparedtothediscretefracturemodel,theequivalentfracturemodelsrequireextensiverecalibrationforpredictingcontaminanttransport.Inthisstudy,weinvestigatetheinfluenceoffracturepatternsontheaccuracyandefficiencyofequivalentfracturemodels(singleporosity)withcubicgridblocksforfracturedgeothermalreservoirs.Whenthefracturepatternrotatesfromaligningtonotaligningalongthemodelaxes,wecomparethetemperaturesoftheequivalentfracturemodelswiththoseofthediscretefracturemodel.Forthenon-parallelfracturepattern,theequivalentpermeabilitytensorhasoff-diagonalcomponents.Accordingly,apartfromthestandardfinitevolumemethod,wealsoapplythemimeticfinitedifferencemethodforsolvingtheflowequationintheequivalentfracturemodels.Thecomputationtimefordifferentmodelshasalsobeencompared.TaoChenetal./EnergyProcedia125(2017)318–326319Availableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comScienceDirectEnergyProcedia00(2017)000–000www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia1876-6102©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).EuropeanGeosciencesUnionGeneralAssembly2017,EGUDivisionEnergy,Resources&Environment,EREEfficiencyandaccuracyofequivalentfracturemodelsforpredictingfracturedgeothermalreservoirs:theinfluenceoffracturenetworkpatternsTaoChena,ChristophClausera,*,GabrieleMarquartaaInstituteforAppliedGeophysicsandGeothermalEnergy,E.ONEnergyResearchCenter,RWTHAachenUniversity,Mathieustr.10,D-52056Aachen,GermanyAbstractWeevaluatetheaccuracyandefficiencyofequivalentfracturemodelswithaCartesiangridregardingthevariationoffracturenetworkpatterns.Weapplyboththestandardfinitevolumemethodandthemimeticfinitedifferencemethodfordiscretizingtheflowequationintheequivalentfracturemodels.Thestudyunderlinesthattheequivalentfracturemodelsyieldaccurateandefficientresultsforpredictingthetemperatureingeothermalreservoirs.Theequivalentfracturemodelsbasedonthemimeticfinitedifferencemethodyieldscomparableresultswiththosebasedonthestandardfinitevolumemethod.Whereastheiraccuracyisinfluencedbytheorientationsofsparselydistributedfractures.©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).Keywords:Equivalentfracturemodel;Discretefracturemodel;Fracturenetworkpattern;Accuracy;Efficiency*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+49-241-8049881;fax:+49-241-8049889.E-mailaddress:cclauser@eonerc.rwth-aachen.deAvailableonlineatwww.sciencedirect.comScienceDirectEnergyProcedia00(2017)000–000www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia1876-6102©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).EuropeanGeosciencesUnionGeneralAssembly2017,EGUDivisionEnergy,Resources&Environment,EREEfficiencyandaccuracyofequivalentfracturemodelsforpredictingfracturedgeothermalreservoirs:theinfluenceoffracturenetworkpatternsTaoChena,ChristophClausera,*,GabrieleMarquartaaInstituteforAppliedGeophysicsandGeothermalEnergy,E.ONEnergyResearchCenter,RWTHAachenUniversity,Mathieustr.10,D-52056Aachen,GermanyAbstractWeevaluatetheaccuracyandefficiencyofequivalentfracturemodelswithaCartesiangridregardingthevariationoffracturenetworkpatterns.Weapplyboththestandardfinitevolumemethodandthemimeticfinitdiferencethodforiscretizingtheflowequationintheequivalentfracturemodels.Thestudyunderlinesthattheequivalentfracturemodelsyieldaccurateandefficientresultsforpredictingthetemperatureingeothermalreservoirs.Theequivalentfracturemodelsbasedonthemimeticfinitedifferencemethodyieldscomparableresultswiththosebasedonthestandardfinitevolumemethod.Whereastheiraccuracyisinfluencedbytheorientationsofsparselydistributedfractures.©2017TheAuthors.PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Peer-reviewunderresponsibilityofthescientificcommitteeoftheEuropeanGeosciencesUnion(EGU)GeneralAssembly2017–DivisionEnergy,ResourcesandtheEnvironment(ERE).Keywords:Equivalentfracturemodel;Discretefracturemodel;Fracturenetworkpattern;Accuracy;Efficiency*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+49-241-8049881;fax:+49-241-8049889.E-mailaddress:cclauser@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de2TaoChenetal./EnergyProcedia00(2017)000–0001.IntroductionNumericalmodelingisageneraltoolforpredictingtheenergyproductionatproductionwellsandassessingriskforageothermalreservoirproject,e.g.,[1,2].Fracturedrocksexistwidelyundergroundwhichactasthemainpathwaysforfluidflow[3],thisisespeciallythecaseforEngineeredGeothermalReservoirs.Accordingly,thenumericalmodelsforgeothermalreservoirsshouldreflectproperlytheeffectoffracturesforcoupledflowandheattransportproblems.Fracturesinanumericalmodelcanberepresentedexplicitly,implicitly,orasacombinationofboth.Forexplicitmodeling,thefracturesareusuallyrepresentedbyone-dimensionallinesintwo-dimensionalmodelsorbytwo-dimensionalsurfacesinthree-dimensionalmodels.Thegeometryofthefractureisdescribedbasedondatafromseismicexperiments,outcrops,welllogging,coresamples,etc
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