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中国海洋油田服务股份有限公司

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中国海洋 油田 服务 股份有限公司
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Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 12ÏSZ²B›"zµK³ ÏSZ²B›µK³^BE8†ŸaB8IJB›‹^ÏSZKv¥²B›‹­B9^ðݹuÿ?K†a›ýK›œaK8†Ÿ¥Z²B›g³­Bb›#F²#?–>a7?#3Á¥òñ¨ö³›b³ 07 M''gÆáÌó¥"д¹Ö; 22.8í•I’-"ÐNìó͙Æß)b ð²Nìû 90 Åí /aÚÊ x¦X¥V?hÁuן󥨟Ï[#S=ÙE¥ºÆáÌç9 08 M†MS=ð²Nì|û 90 Åí[ÚÊ‘•¿³¦9F ³ 07 M¥ÜlÆÑV 60%Ÿ1ÏZ²b 08 MÏZ²ç9''¦ 52.4aÅíÏ 10.4aÅíT¹>¦ß³>g'v–9F ™Æ nQß) Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 12China Oilfield Services Limited China Oilfield Services Limited is the leading integrated oilfield services provider in the offshore China market, with services cover each phase of offshore oil and gas exploration, development and production. After comparing with competitors, we give COSL 25 times P/E ratio conservatively, to reflect its continuous EPS growth, and CNOOC’s big capital expenditure as a potential catalyst. The target price, considering FX rate, should be HK$ 22.8, recommend as Buy rating. Crude Oil will sustain above US$90/bbl Expansion of offshore oil exploitation has become one of China's new oil development strategies. Growth of oil output will be more and more reliant on offshore exploitation and China's oil exploration is entering a phase of rapid development. With more free cash flow in hand, company will look forward to expand scope through M&A. CNOOC raised capital expenditure CNOOC Limited accounted for approximately 62% of COSL’s turnover for year 2007. In 2008, CNOOC will increase total capital expenditure, among which, US$1.04 billion will be invested as exploration capital. Drilling and Well services Since the third quarter last year, the rental rates for jack-up and semi-submersible rigs have climbed up to over US$100 thousands/day, which will help lift drilling segment revenue. We predict the utilization rate by calendar days will increase as well Marine and Geophysical services there will an eight hawser vessel added within year 08, then the geo-capacity will be lifted up tremendously, and the market share is expected to increase over 80%. Valuation With estimated EPS for year 08 and 09 is RMB 0.84 and RMB1.21 respectively, the target price, considering FX rate, should be HK$ 22.8, recommend as Buy rating. Valuation Table RMB Million 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Revenue 4802 6396 8867 12603 16406 Growth 26% 33% 39% 42% 30%Net Income 821 1128 2261 3796 5457 Growth 17% 37% 100% 68% 44%EPS 0.183 0.251 0.503 0.840 1.210 Growth 4% 37% 100% 67% 44%P/E(x) 85.8 60.1 29.9 17.9 12.5 Source: Company data, China Merchants Securities (HK) estimates Target price HK$ 22.8 Current price HK$ 15.08 3 March 2008 Bloomberg 2883 HK Reuters 2883. HK Stock data Share issued(m) 1534.8 Total market cap(HK$bn)129 52-week range(HK$) 4.45-22.85 Average daily turnover (HK$m) 12.58 Major shareholders %CNOOC Group 61.58% Fidelity Intl. 3.4% Industry Oil ServicesContact: China Merchants Securities (HK) (852)-31896126 (86) 755-82943739 Email : Yujin@cmschina.com.cn Stock Performance Source: Bloomberg Benefit From Magnitude Exploration Capital Expenditure Buy (Initial Coverage) Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 12„ Company Background China Oilfield Services Limited (COSL) is a leading integrated oilfield services provider in the offshore China market. With over 30 years experience in marine operation, COSL’s services cover each phase of offshore oil and gas exploration, development and production. Its four business segments are drilling services, well services, marine support and transportation services and geophysical services. Table 1. Revenue and Net Income Growth 020004000600080001000012000140001600018000    0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Revenue Net IncomeSources: Company data, China Merchants Securities (HK) forecasts COSL operates 15 drilling rigs, including 12 jack-ups and three semi-submersibles. In addition, COSL owns and operates many fleets in offshore China, including 69 support vessels, five oil tankers, one chemical vessel, five successively leased chemical vessels, seven seismic vessels, and four geo-technical survey vessels. It also has a vast array of modern facilities and equipment for well services including ELIS, FEWD, etc. Table 2. Revenue Constitution 2006Drilling48.7%Well21.2%Marine16.4%Geophysical13.7%Drilling Well Marine Geophysical2007Drilling49.0%Well16.0%Marine15.4%Geophysical19.6%Drilling Well Marine GeophysicalSources: Company data, China Merchants Securities (HK) As of 31 December 2006, overseas revenue as a ratio of gross revenue increased from 9% at the year end of 2005 to 17.3%, representing an increase of RMB 1104 million or 151.4% in the same period last year. COSL’s three drilling rigs and other geo-technical survey vessels provided services in Indonesia, Australia and Myanmar meanwhile its Please see important notice on the last page. 3 of 12operating sphere has expanded to 13 regions and countries shaping the trend of diversified development. Unlike other global competitors that specialise in one or two types of oil services, COSL is unique in providing a comprehensive, integrated-service package to the oil companies, especially those that are tired of dealing with too many service providers. This business model has helped COSL win the most oil-service contracts in offshore China. By the end of 2007, company’s operating revenue from four business segments increased almost 40% compare to year 06 YoY, with net income soared up to nearly RMB2200 millions, with a 95% increase YoY. „ Global Industry Overview Currently, China's oil consumption largely depends on imports. Statistics show that last year, China imported more than 46% of crude oil from abroad. It is estimated that if China maintains an economic growth of 10% more or less in the coming 10 years, its crude oil demand will grow at least 4% and the gap between crude oil supply and demand will broaden year after year. On the other hand, owing to continuous hiking international crude oil price, China's import price of crude oil will still be going up on the whole. Table 3. Energy Consumption Breakeven in 11thFive-Year Plan 66.1%20.5%5.3%8.1%Coal Oil Natural Gas OthersSources: NDRC, China Merchants Securities (HK) Under such circumstance, expansion of offshore oil exploitation has become one of China's new oil development strategies. China reportedly plans to increase its exploitation scale to twice that of 2003 by 2010. China's crude oil output in 2007 was around 187 million tons while its offshore oil output was only 45 million tons. Experts predicted that in the future, growth of oil output will be more and more reliant on offshore exploitation and China's oil exploration is entering a phase of rapid development. In terms of offshore oil exploitation, China is first confronted with the problem of technology and equipment. Unlike the equipment for onshore exploitation, offshore oil and gas production equipment are small, light, highly efficient, highly automatic and Please see important notice on the last page. 4 of 12centralized and organized in setting. Currently, over 50% of China's offshore oil production equipment has to depend on imports. As to the key technology and equipment of high added value, such as geophysical prospecting equipment, system software and positioning equipment, even have to entirely rely on imports. „ Drilling Services Development COSL currently operates 15 drilling rigs, including 12 jack-ups and 3 semi-submersibles, and leased 1 jack-up. The processing operating water depth range up to 457 feet and maximum rated drilling depth of 9,000 meters. The construction of COSL 941, a jack-up rig up to international standards with maximum operating water depth of 122 meters and maximum rated drilling depth of 9,144 meters, was completed and commence operation in 2006. Table 4. Drilling Operational Data Comparison 0500100015002000250030003500400045002005 2006 2007Days75.00%80.00%85.00%90.00%95.00%100.00%Jack-Up Rigs Semi-submersible RigsJack-Up Rigs Semi-submersible RigsSources: Company data, China Merchants Securities (HK) From past operating experience, we can find out that drilling services sector had contributed nearly half of the total revenue each year. With the board’s approval of the capital expenditure budget in year 08, company will add two 350 feet rigs and four 200 feet rigs, plus two liftboats, which will help enlarge operating capacity of drilling services for about 40%. Since the third quarter last year, the rental rates for jack-up and semi-submersible rigs have climbed up to over US$100 thousands/day. From the table above, we predict that with the rapid expansion of offshore exploitation, utilization rate by calendar days will increase as well. All these factors will make drilling services benefit tremendously. In addition, we calculate out about two-thirds of the drilling services revenue derives from business with CNOOC, which will spend more money in the coming years to boost production and replenish reserves. Much of that capital expenditure will benefit down to COSL’s revenue. Through CNOOC’s new strategy plan, the company will further enhance its exploration action focused on offshore China. In 2008, the company will increase total capital expenditure to US$5.24 billion, among which, US$1.04 billion will Please see important notice on the last page. 5 of 12be invested as exploration capital. Among COSL’s business divisions, drilling sector achieved operating margin growth at 40% in 2007. „ Well Services Development Well services segment consists of several service product lines, logging, directional drilling, cementing, drilling fluids, well completion, production increment and data collection. With the continuous robust exploration and production activities in offshore China and the expansion of overseas markets, well services of COSL consolidated its market share in China while extended to overseas markets, including Philippines, Indonesia, Myanmar and Papua New Guinea. Among the above lines mentioned, the cementing and drilling fluids services showed greatest international competitiveness among COSL’s expertise. While COSL commands almost 94% of the drilling market, it has a more than 60% market share in well services, which accounted for 16% of 2007 revenue income. At the meantime, there are many tasks that require high-tech skills and only foreign competitors can accomplish the role. Chart 1. Well Services Operational Data Well Service 2005 2006 2007 Change PercentageLogging 698 837 865 3.3%Drilling Fluids 368 291 290 -0.3%Directional Drilling 210 242 581 140.1%Cementing 249 474 332 -30.0%Well Completion 1241 1244 1527 22.7%Well Workover N.A 13369 15944 19.3%Sources: Company data, China Merchants Securities (HK) Compare with other three segments, well services should not be defined as capital intensive. Therefore, the capital expenditure of the segment will be relative lower in the coming years. Briefly two utility vessels, costing around RMB600 million, will be put on track on 2Q08, and three LWD and VSP equipments will be available for operation on 3Q08. „ Marine and Transportation Services Development COSL own and operate a comprehensive fleet of 70 marine support vessels, 5 oil tankers and 5 chemical tankers. Fleet of vessels mainly transports materials, supplies and personnel to offshore facilities of exploration and production, safeguards facilities, moves and positions drilling structures, as well as tows and handles anchors for barges. It also ships crude oil and oil products. Please see important notice on the last page. 6 of 12Table 5. Marine Operational Data 226002280023000232002340023600238002400024200244002005 2006 2007Days98.20%98.40%98.60%98.80%99.00%99.20%99.40%99.60%99.80%Operating Days Vessel Util Rate(Avail)Sources: Company data, China Merchants Securities (HK) Company’s marine and transportation segment belongs to non-high-technique business; its depreciation period for vessels is 10-15 years. From the revenue constitution table, we can see its revenue share got shrank a little bit in the past year. The main reason is lack of new equipments injection. Company have recently kicked off the construction of 18 multi-purpose marine support vessels, with 10 will be available for carrying on in 2H08. In addition, considering four newly built chemical tanker and five vessels leased from joint ventures was already put into operation later last year, we predict the segment will speed up. „ Geophysical Services Development COSL own 7 seismic vessels and 4 geo-tech survey vessels, primarily engaging in seismic and construction survey, seismic analysis and offshore seismic data collection and processing. In 2006, Asia’s first six-streamer seismic vessel COSL718 commenced operation. The vessels are well equipped with modern seismic and navigational equipment and are capable of gathering both two dimensional and three dimensional high resolution seismic data. The fleet has the capacity to collect up to 400,000 CDP kilometers seismic data per year. Table 6. Geophysical Operational Data Comparison 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 500002D Collection2D Processing3D Collection3D Processing200720062005Sources: Company data, China Merchants Securities (HK) Please see important notice on the last page. 7 of 12Company currently owns one six hawser vessel, two four hawser vessels, three two hawser vessels and one three hawser vessel, totally counts twenty-three hawser geo-capacity. With the new round capital expenditure went on, there will an eight hawser vessel added within year 08, then the geo-capacity will be lifted up tremendously, and the market share is expected to increase over 80%. „ Collaboration With CNOOC and Overseas COSL most important customer in the offshore China market is CNOOC Limited, the leading upstream offshore petroleum company in China and the only company permitted to engage in oil and gas exploration and production offshore China in cooperation with foreign parties. CNOOC Limited accounted for approximately 62% of COSL’s turnover for year 2007. As of 31 December 2006, overseas revenue as a ratio of gross revenue increased from 9% at the year end of 2005 to 20%, representing an increase of 157.9% in the same period last year. As the Company increasing its influence in overseas market, its operating sphere has now expanded to 11 regions and countries including Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines and
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